Contents

Preface

About the authors

Abbreviations and acronyms

PART I LIQUIDITY AND BANKING ACTIVITY

1 Banks as lemons?

1.1 Introduction

1.2 The first wave

1.3 Banks as lemons?

1.4 The response

1.5 The second wave

1.6 Conclusion

2 A journey into liquidity

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Central bank liquidity

2.3 Funding liquidity

2.4 Market liquidity

2.5 The virtuous circle

2.6 The vicious circle

2.7 Second-round effects

2.8 The role of the central bank, supervision and regulation

2.9 Conclusions

3 Too big to fail

3.1 Introduction

3.2 When giants fall

3.3 A hard lesson

3.4 Closer supervision

3.5 G-SIFI regulations

3.6 The next steps

3.7 Conclusion

4 The new framework

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Some basic liquidity risk measures

4.3 The first mover

4.4 Basel III: The new framework for liquidity risk measurement and monitoring

4.4.1 The liquidity coverage ratio

4.5 Inside the liquidity coverage ratio

4.6 The other metrics

4.7 Intraday liquidity risk

4.8 Beyond the ratios

4.9 Conclusion

5 Know thyself!

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Some changes on the liabilities side

5.3 The role of leverage

5.4 The originate-to-distribute business model

5.5 The liquidity framework

5.6 Stress-testing and contingency funding plan

5.7 The CEBS identity card

5.8 Conclusions

5.9 Appendix: The CEBS Identity Card Annex (CEBS)

PART II TOOLS TO MANAGE LIQUIDITY RISK

6 Monitoring liquidity

6.1 A taxonomy of cash flows

6.2 Liquidity options

6.3 Liquidity risk

6.4 Quantitative liquidity risk measures

6.4.1 The term structure of expected cash flows and the term structure of expected cumulated cash flows

6.4.2 Liquidity generation capacity

6.4.3 The term structure of available assets

6.5 The term structure of expected liquidity

6.6 Cash flows at risk and the term structure of liquidity at risk

7 Liquidity buffer and term structure of funding

7.1 Introduction

7.2 Liquidity buffer and counterbalancing capacity

7.3 The first cause of the need for a liquidity buffer: Maturity mismatch

7.3.1 Some or all stressed scenarios do not occur

7.3.2 The cost of the liquidity buffer for maturity mismatch

7.3.3 Liquidity buffer costs when stressed scenarios do not occur

7.3.4 A more general formula for liquidity buffer costs

7.4 Funding assets with several liabilities

7.5 Actual scenarios severer than predicted

7.6 The term structure of available funding and the liquidity buffer

7.6.1 The term structure of forward cumulated funding and how to use it

7.7 Non-maturing liabilities

7.7.1 Pricing of NML and cost of the liquidity buffer

7.8 The second cause of the liquidity buffer: Collateral margining

7.8.1 A method to set the liquidity buffer for derivative collateral

7.8.2 The cost of the liquidity buffer for derivative collateral

7.9 The third cause of the liquidity buffer: Off-balance-sheet commitments

7.10 Basel III regulation and liquidity buffer

8 Models for market risk factors

8.1 Introduction

8.2 Stock prices and FX rates

8.3 Interest rate models

8.3.1 One-factor models for the zero rate

8.3.2 Vasicek model

8.3.3 The CIR model

8.3.4 The CIR++ model

8.3.5 The basic affine jump diffusion model

8.3.6 Numerical implementations

8.3.7 Discrete version of the CIR model

8.3.8 Monte Carlo methods

8.3.9 Libor market model

8.4 Default probabilities and credit spreads

8.4.1 Structural models

8.4.2 Reduced models

8.4.3 Credit spreads

8.5 Expected and minimum liquidity generation capacity of available bonds

8.5.1 Value of the position in a defaultable coupon bond

8.5.2 Expected value of the position in a coupon bond

8.5.3 Haircut modelling

8.5.4 Future value of a bond portfolio

8.5.5 Calculating the quantile: a Δ − Γ approximation of the portfolio

8.5.6 Estimation of the CIR++ model for interest rates

8.5.7 Estimation of the CIR++ model for default intensities

8.5.8 Future liquidity from a single bond

8.5.9 Future liquidity from more bonds

8.6 Fair haircut for repo transactions and collateralized loans

8.7 Adjustments to the value of illiquid bonds

8.7.1 Liquid equivalent adjustment

8.7.2 Price volatility adjustment

8.A Expectation value of the bond with selling probability and spread

9 Behavioural models

9.1 Introduction

9.2 Prepayment modelling

9.2.1 Common approaches to modelling prepayments

9.2.2 Hedging with an empirical model

9.2.3 Effective hedging strategies of prepayment risk

9.2.4 Conclusions on prepayment models

9.2.5 Modelling prepayment decisions

9.2.6 Modelling the losses upon prepayment

9.2.7 Analytical approximation for ELoP1

9.2.8 Valuing the ELoP using a VaR approach

9.2.9 Extension to double rational prepayment

9.2.10 Total prepayment cost

9.2.11 Expected cash flows

9.2.12 Mortgage pricing including prepayment costs

9.3 Sight deposit and non-maturing liability modelling

9.3.1 Modelling approaches

9.3.2 The stochastic factor approach

9.3.3 Economic evaluation and risk management of deposits

9.3.4 Inclusion of bank runs

9.4 Credit line modelling

9.4.1 Measures to monitor usage of credit lines

9.4.2 Modelling withdrawal intensity

9.4.3 Liquidity management of credit lines

9.4.4 Pricing of credit lines

9.4.5 Commitment fee

9.4.6 Adding the probability of default

9.4.7 Spread option

9.4.8 Incremental pricing

9.A General decomposition of hedging swaps

9.B Accuracy of mortgage rate approximation

9.B.1 Internal model simulation engine

9.B.2 Results

9.C Accuracy of the approximated formula for correlated mortgage rate and prepayment intensity

9.D Characteristic function of the integral images

PART III PRICING LIQUIDITY RISK

10 The links between credit risk and funding cost

10.1 Introduction

10.2 The axiom

10.3 Cash flow fair values and discounting

10.4 Critique of debit value adjustment

10.4.1 Single-period case

10.4.2 Multi-period case

10.4.3 DVA as a funding benefit

10.5 DVA for derivative contracts

10.6 Extension to positive recovery and liquidity risk

10.7 Dynamic replication of DVA

10.7.1 The gain process

10.7.2 Dynamic replication of a defaultable claim

10.7.3 Objections to the statement “no long position in a bank's own bonds is possible”

10.7.4 DVA replication by the funding benefit

10.7.5 DVA replication and bank's franchise

10.8 Recapitulation of results

10.9 Accounting standard and DVA

10.10 Distinction between price and value

11 Cost of liquidity and fund transfer pricing

11.1 Introduction

11.2 Principles of transfer pricing

11.2.1 Balance sheet

11.2.2 Bank's profits and losses

11.3 Funding and banking activity

11.4 Building a funding curve

11.5 Including the funding cost in loan pricing

11.5.1 Pricing of a fixed rate bullet loan

11.6 Monitoring funding costs and risk control of refunding risk

11.7 Funding costs and asset/liability management

11.8 Internal fund transfer pricing system

11.8.1 Multiple curves

11.8.2 Single curve

11.8.3 Implementation of funding policies

11.9 Best practices and regulation

12 Liquidity risk and the cost of funding in derivative contracts

12.1 Pricing of derivative contracts under collateral agreements

12.1.1 Pricing in a simple discrete setting

12.1.2 The replicating portfolio in continuous time

12.1.3 Pricing with a funding rate different from the investment rate

12.1.4 Funding rate different from investment rate and repo rate

12.1.5 Interest rate derivatives

12.2 Pricing of collateralized derivative contracts when more than one currency is involved

12.2.1 Contracts collateralized in a currency other than the payoff currency

12.2.2 FX derivatives

12.2.3 Interest rate derivatives

12.2.4 Cross-currency swaps

12.3 Valuation of non-collateralized interest rate swaps including funding costs

12.3.1 The basic setup

12.3.2 Hedging swap exposures and cash flows

12.3.3 Funding spread modelling

12.3.4 Strategy 1: Funding all cash flows at inception

12.3.5 Strategy 2: Funding negative cash flows when they occur

12.3.6 Including counterparty credit risk

12.3.7 Practical examples

13 A sort of conclusion: towards a new treasury?

13.1 Introduction

13.2 Organization of the treasury and the dealing room

13.3 Banking vs trading book

13.3.1 Collateralization

13.3.2 Links amongst risks

13.3.3 Production costs

References

Index

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