Moving from project to product thinking

To create a shift from project to product thinking, first we have to think about why we would want to do this. 

As discussed in the early chapters, there has been a tendency in the software industry for us to use predictive forms of planning, mainly because we feel like this would give us the best chance of controlling a successful outcome. Up front requirements for gathering and design are needed to ascertain a budget, resources, and a completion date. This helps determine levels of comfort with the project before requesting a budget and moving forward with the implementation of the idea.

However, predictive planning requires Big Design Up Front (BDUF) which, even if using an iterative Agile method such as Scrum, will result in Water-Scrum-Fall. We carry out the initial ideation, requirement gathering, analysis, and design up front. We then implement the plan iteratively, before going through an extensive integration and deployment phase.

Water-Scrum-Fall solves some but not all of the problems Agile was intended to address. In fact, it reduces our agility significantly because we fix scope at the beginning of the work during the planning phase. When changes arise, there is little flexibility and a certain degree of reluctance to modify the plan. I've seen this happen many times, particularly in large projects where there seems to be a reluctance to change course, even when the obvious is staring us in the face. 

This is the Sunk Cost Fallacy in full swing. In a nutshell, sunk cost refers to how much money, time, and effort we've already invested into something. The more invested, the more likely we are to pursue something because of our predisposed position of not wanting to waste time, effort, or money already spent. However, this can create an emotional state which makes us unable to see whether we should cut our losses or not. We refer to this lack of objectivity as the Sunk Cost Fallacy. It points to our tendency to be biased towards pursuing those things we've already invested in. When considering whether to continue work on a product, we should focus on the value it will return when finished, not the money and time already spent.

If we shift from predictive to adaptive planning, we'll be able to avoid the feeling that we have to keep spending and we'll be able to chase value. To understand why we need first to understand the nature of the problem with which we're dealing. In the next section, we'll look at a framework that helps us make more sense of the situation.

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