Contents

Preface

Acknowledgments

SECTION I FOUNDATIONS

CHAPTER 1 Introduction

Cognition

Innovation

The Macro Picture

Earthquakes Every Year

Themes

We've Seen This Movie Before

Notes

CHAPTER 2 Demographics

Is There a “Net Generation”?

Digital Natives

Millennials at Work

Behavior and Expectations

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 3 Behavioral Economics

Challenges to Economic Man

Behavioral Economics in a Networked Age

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 4 Information Economics

Information Goods

Pricing Information: Versioning and Bundling

Network Effects

Lock-in

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 5 Platforms

Strategic Levers

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 6 Power Laws and Their Implications

A Bit of History

Long-Tail Successes

Cautionary Tales

Facts of Life

Implications

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 7 Security and Risk

Landscape

Information Space Is Neither Average nor Normal

People Systematically Misestimate Risk

Doing It Right

Looking Ahead

Notes

SECTION II WORK AND ORGANIZATION

CHAPTER 8 A Brief History of Organizational Innovation

1776: Division of Labor

1860–1890: Railroads and the Rise of Administration

1910: Scientific Management and the Further Division of Labor

1930s: Alfred Sloan at General Motors

1937–1981: Transaction Costs

1980s: Economies of Scope and Core Competencies

1995: Linux as “Commons-Based Peer Production”

2000: Offshore

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 9 Firms, Ecosystems, and Collaboratives

Emerging Nonfirm Models

Distributed Capital

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 10 Government

The Biggest Employer

Government Hiring at a Crossroads

Inevitable Downsizing

Government on the Technology Landscape

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 11 Crowds

Crowdsourcing: Group Effort

Information Markets and Other Crowd Wisdom

Varieties of Market Experience

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 12 Mobility

Bottom Up

Search Costs

Supply Chain Efficiency

Mobile Phone Industry Impact

Risk Mitigation

Apps for Change

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 13 Work

The Big Picture: Macro Trends

Where

Outputs

Skills

Work

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 14 Productivity

Classic Productivity Definitions

Services Productivity

Services Productivity and Information Technology

Information Technology and Unemployment

Looking Ahead

Notes

SECTION III BUSINESS MODEL DISRUPTION

CHAPTER 15 Business Model Overview

Definition

Changing Minds, Changing Models

Disruptive Innovation

Disruptive Innovation as Paradigm Shift

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 16 Data and Communications

Evolution of the Incumbent Business Model, 1877–1996

Business Model Disruption, 1996–2010

Implications of “Stupid” Networks

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 17 Software Business Models

Incumbent Model Pre-2000

Business Model Disruption after 1998

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 18 Music Business Models

Incumbent Model Pre-2000

Business Model Disruption Pre-Napster

Business Model Disruption Post-Napster

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 19 News

Incumbent Formula Pre-2005

Business Model Disruption

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 20 Healthcare

Definitions

Healthcare as Car Repair for People?

Following the Money

Where Information Technology Can and Cannot Help

Disruptive Innovation

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 21 Two Disruptions that Weren't

Retail

Real Estate

Notes

SECTION IV TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPES

CHAPTER 22 Code

Intangibility

Fungibility

Code Embeds Value Judgments

Metadata

Social Metadata

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 23 Sensors

Historical Roots

Ubiquity

Current Examples

Phones as Sensors

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 24 The Internet and Other Networks

Legacy Telecom Network Principles

Defense Origins of the Internet

Internet Principles

Consequences of Internet Principles

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 25 Location Awareness

Variations on a Theme

Landmarks

Location, Mobility, and Identity

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 26 Clouds

Both Technical and Economic Innovation

Cloud Computing and the Enterprise

The Cloud Will Change How Resources Are Organized

Practical Considerations

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 27 Wireless

Precedents

The Breakthrough

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 28 Search

Why Search Matters: Context

The Wide Reach of Search

Valuing Search

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 29 Analytics

Why Now?

Practical Considerations: Why Analytics Is Still Hard

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 30 Information Visualization

Supply

Demand

Audience

Definition and Purpose

Current State

Looking Ahead

Notes

SECTION V SOME BIG QUESTIONS

CHAPTER 31 Identity and Privacy

Privacy

Scale

Invisibility

Identity

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 32 Communications and Relationships

Connections

Networks

Creation

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 33 Place, Space, and Time

Virtuality

Organizations

Automata

Implications

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 34 Conflict

Warfare between Nation-States

Non-Nation-State Actors

Emerging Offensive Weapons

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 35 Innovation

Amazon

Crowds

Looking Ahead

Notes

CHAPTER 36 Information, Technology, and Innovation

Macro Issues

Globalization

Strategy

Organizations

Marketing

Supply Chains

The IT Shop

Implications

The Last Word …

Notes

About the Author

Index

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