PART ONE
THE EMERGENCE OF THE EURODOLLAR MARKET
Chapter 1
The Emergence of the Eurodollar Market
Exhibit 1.1 Milestones in the Development of the Dollar Money Markets
Exhibit 1.2 Inflation and 3-Month Treasury Bill Yields (1960 through May 2002)
Exhibit 1.3 Growth of the Eurodollar Market: Eurodollars Outstanding (Year-End 1973 through 2001)
Exhibit 1.4 CD Futures Volume versus Eurodollar/CD Futures Rate Spread
Exhibit 1.5 The Spread between 3-Month CD and Treasury Bill Rates (June 1964 through June 2002)
Exhibit 1.7 Global Interest Rate Swaps Outstanding (Converted to U.S. Dollars)
Exhibit 1.8 Global versus U.S. Interest Rate Swaps Outstanding (Converted to U.S. Dollars)
Exhibit 1.9 Exchanges That Trade Money Market Futures
PART TWO
BUILDING BLOCKS: EURODOLLAR FUTURES
Chapter 2
The Eurodollar Time Deposit
Exhibit 2.1 Eurodollar Deposit Rates (Monday, June 17, 2002)
Chapter 3
The Eurodollar Futures Contract
Exhibit 3.1 Eurodollar Futures Contract Specifications
Exhibit 3.2 Contract Month Symbols
Exhibit 3.3 Bloomberg EDSF Function (Prices for June 17, 2002)
Exhibit 3.4 Contract Year Color Grid (As of June 12, 2002)
Exhibit 3.5 How Eurodollar Futures Work
Exhibit 3.6 Eurodollar Futures Volume and Open Interest (1982 through June 2002)
Exhibit 3.7 Bond and Eurodollar Futures Open Interest by Contract (Year-End 2001)
Exhibit 3.8 Other 3-Month Money Market Futures Contract Specifications
Chapter 4
Forward and Futures Interest Rates
Exhibit 4.1 Eurodollar Futures Prices and Rates (June 17, 2002)
Exhibit 4.2 Eurodollar Deposit Rates (Monday, June 17, 2002)
Exhibit 4.3 Key Differences between Forward and Futures Markets
Exhibit 4.4 Are Futures Rich or Cheap? (June 17, 2002)
Exhibit 4.5 Is Term LIBOR Rich or Cheap? (June 17, 2002)
Exhibit 4.7 Eurodollar Futures Prices and Rates (Monday, June 17, 2002)
Exhibit 4.8 Spot and Forward-Starting Term Rates (June 17, 2002)
Chapter 5
Hedging with Eurodollar Futures
Exhibit 5.1 Terminal Wealths and Zero-Coupon Bond Prices (June 17, 2002)
Exhibit 5.2 Effect of Rate Changes on the Value of the $100 Million 1-Year Zero
Exhibit 5.3 Pricing a 2-Year, 5% Coupon Bond (June 17, 2002)
Exhibit 5.4 Number of Eurodollar Futures Needed to Hedge $1 Million Par Amount Zero (June 17, 2002)
Exhibit 5.7 Correlation between Weekly Changes in Lead Eurodollar Futures Rates and Spot LIBOR (January 1997 through July 2002)
Exhibit 5.8 Interpolating Terminal Wealths (July 18, 2002)
Chapter 6
Pricing and Hedging a Swap with Eurodollar Futures
Exhibit 6.1 1-Year Fixed/Floating Interest Rate Swap with Quarterly Payments
Exhibit 6.2 Eurodollar Futures Prices, Terminal Wealths, and Zero-Coupon Bond Prices (June 17, 2002)
Exhibit 6.3 Eurodollar Futures Rates vs. Swap Fixed Rate (June 17, 2002)
Exhibit 6.5 Hedging the Swap’s Cash Flows (June 17, 2002)
Exhibit 6.9 Convexity Characteristics of a Non-Callable Bond
Exhibit 6.10 Estimating the Convexity Bias between Futures and Forward Rates (June 17, 2002)
Exhibit 6.11 Eurodollar Futures and Swap Convexity Bias (June 17, 2002)
Exhibit 6.12 Convexity Bias by Futures Contract and Swap Maturity (June 17, 2002)
Exhibit 6.13 Three Yield Curves: Futures, Zero Coupon, and Par Coupon (June 17, 2002)
Exhibit 6.14 Three Yield Curves: Futures, Zero Coupon, and Par Coupon (June 17, 2002)
PART THREE
EURODOLLAR FUTURES APPLICATIONS
Chapter 7
The Convexity Bias in Eurodollar Futures
Exhibit 7.1 Convexity Bias (June 13, 1994)
Exhibit 7.2 Structure of Eurodollar Futures Rates (June 13, 1994)
Exhibit 7.3 Cash Consequences of a Change in a Forward Rate
Exhibit 7.4 Swap and Eurodollar Futures P/Ls
Exhibit 7.5 The Convexity Difference between Swaps and Eurodollar Futures
Exhibit 7.6 Net P/Ls for a Receive Fixed/Pay Floating Swap Hedged with Short Eurodollar Futures
Exhibit 7.10 Calculating the Value of the Convexity Bias
Exhibit 7.11 Standard Deviation of Eurodollar Futures Rate Changes (Annualized)
Exhibit 7.12 Standard Deviation of Term Yield Changes
Exhibit 7.13 Correlation of Eurodollar Rates and Term Rates
Exhibit 7.14 Eurodollar and Swap Convexity Bias (June 13, 1994)
Convexity Adjusted Swap Yields
Exhibit 7.15 Convexity Bias in Forward Swaps (bp)
Exhibit 7.16 Spreads between Market and Implied Swap Yields
Chapter 8
Convexity Bias Report Card
Exhibit 8.1 Eurodollar/Swap Convexity Adjustments (Theoretical vs. Market)
Exhibit 8.2 Eurodollar Convexity Bias Greeks (April 14, 1997)
Exhibit 8.3 Convexity Bias Greeks for Swaps (April 14, 1997)
Chapter 9
New Convexity Bias Series
Exhibit 9.1 Eurodollar Futures Rates (January 4, 2001, and January 4, 2002)
Eurodollar Futures Implied Volatilities (January 4, 2001, and January 4, 2002)
Exhibit 9.2 Convexity Bias Values for 5-Year Swaps (January 26, 1996, through December 31, 2001)
Convexity Bias Values for 10-Year Swaps (January 26, 1996, through December 31, 2001)
Chapter 10
Convexity Bias: An Update
Exhibit 10.1 Daily Zero to Ten
Chapter 11
Measuring and Trading Term TED Spreads
Exhibit 11.1 History of the TED Spread, 1970–1995 (3-Month LIBOR Less 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate)
Exhibit 11.3 Term TED Spreads (June 5, 1995)
Exhibit 11.4 5-Year Term TED Spreads (September 1993 through May 1995)
Exhibit 11.6 2-Year TED Spread versus 2-Year Note Yield (1989 through 1995)
Exhibit 11.9 Forward Term TED Spreads (Implied Eurodollar/Treasury Spreads for June 5, 1995)
Exhibit 11.10 2-Year versus 5-Year Term TED Spreads
Exhibit 11.11 Eurodollar Hedge for a 2×5 Term TED Spread (June 5, 1995)
Exhibit 11.12 Components of the Term TED Spread (June 5, 1995)
Exhibit 11.13 Parsing the 5-Year Term TED Spread (Basis Points)
Exhibit 11.A1 Terminal Wealths and Discount Factors (June 5, 1995)
Exhibit 11.A2 Time Line 1: Calculating a Spot Stub Rate
Exhibit 11.A3 Time Line 2: Calculating a Discount Factor for a Particular Cash Flow
Exhibit 11.A4 Interpolating Terminal Wealths
Exhibit 11.A5 Time Line 3: Tracking the Cash Flows on a Treasury Note
Exhibit 11.A6 TED Spread: Eurodollar Strip Rate versus Treasury Yield
Exhibit 11.A7 TED Spread: Implied Eurodollar Yield versus Treasury Yield
Exhibit 11.A8 TED Spread: Fixed Spread to Eurodollar Rates
Exhibit 11.A9 Forward Term TED Spread
Exhibit 11.A11 Hedge Ratios: Fixed Spread against Eurodollar Rates
Chapter 12
TED Spreads: An Update
Exhibit 12.1 2-Year Note TED Spreads (Plus Forward TEDs to September 18, 2002) (September 10, 2002)
Exhibit 12.2 TED Spreads (Plus Forward TEDs to December 18, 2002) (September 10, 2002)
Chapter 13
Hedging and Trading with Eurodollar Stacks, Packs, and Bundles
Exhibit 13.1 Treasury Note Correlations with ED Packs (June 1994 to June 1999)
Exhibit 13.2 Eurodollar Hedges for a 2-Year Note (5-1/2s of 7/31/01 as of August 4, 1999)
Exhibit 13.3 Eurodollar Futures Contract Rates (Closing Levels, August 4, 1999)
Exhibit 13.4 Contracts by Color (August 4, 1999)
Exhibit 13.5 The Menu of Eurodollar Bundles
Exhibit 13.6 Best Pack and Bundle Hedges (2-Year Note, 5-Year Note, and 10-Year Note)
Exhibit 13.7 Best Single Contract, Pack, and Bundle Hedges
Exhibit 13.9 Hedge Horizon and Best Hedges
Exhibit 13.14 Deconstructing a Curve TED Spread
Exhibit 13.15 The Curve Trade Implied by a Red Pack Hedge for a 2-Year Treasury Note
Exhibit 13.16 Calculating the Curve Spread
Exhibit 13.18 Generic Eurodollar Curve Spreads
Exhibit 13.19 Augmenting a 2-Year TED Spread
Chapter 14
Hedging Extension and Compression Risk in Callable Agency Notes
Exhibit 14.1 Callable Agency Yield Spread over 10-Year Treasury (Yield Spread in Basis Points)
Exhibit 14.3 Standard Maturities and Call Features
Exhibit 14.4 Components of Risk in a Callable Note (10-Year Note, Callable in 5 Years)
Exhibit 14.5 Constructing a Synthetic Forward Note
Exhibit 14.6 Alternative Hedges for a 10-Year Note Callable in 5 Years (Call Option’s Delta = 0.5)
Exhibit 14.8 How to Price a Forward Note
Exhibit 14.11 Value of American Option versus European Options
Exhibit 14.12 European Call Option Values (No Call Protection)
Exhibit 14.13 European Call Option Values (5 Years of Call Protection)
Exhibit 14.14 Hedging with Eurodollar Futures (3-Year Callable Note with 2 Years of Call Protection)
Exhibit 14.15 Hedging with Eurodollar Futures (3-Year Callable Note with No Call Protection)
Chapter 15
Opportunities in the S&P 500 Calendar Roll
Exhibit 15.2 Implied Financing Rate Less Lead ED Rate (1988–1998)
Exhibit 15.3 Daily Changes in the Lead ED Futures Rate
Exhibit 15.4 Target Fed Funds Rate
Exhibit 15.5 Lead ED Futures Rate Less Target Fed Funds Rate (bps)
Chapter 16
Trading the Turn: 1993
Exhibit 16.1 LIBOR Futures Calendar Spread (December 1992/January 1993)
Exhibit 16.2 Time Line for the 1993 Turn
Exhibit 16.3 Fed Funds Behavior around Year-End
Exhibit 16.4 How the Turn Fits In
Exhibit 16.6 Implied 1-Month Forward Deposit Rates (September 13, 1993)
Exhibit 16.7 LIBOR Futures Calendar Spread (December 1992/January 1993)
Exhibit 16.8 LIBOR Futures Calendar Spread (December 1993/January 1994)
Exhibit 16.9 Add-on Turn Volatility Premium (3 percent Forward Rate)
Exhibit 16.10 Add-on Turn Volatility Premium (6 percent Forward Rate)
Exhibit 16.11 LED Volatility Spreads (December 1991 Contracts)
Exhibit 16.12 LED Volatility Spreads (December 1992 Contracts)
Exhibit 16.13 LED Volatility Spreads (December 1993 Contracts)
Chapter 17
The Turn: An Update
Exhibit 17.1 Eurodollar and LIBOR Turn Report
Exhibit 17.2 Stub Hedges (Using CBOT Fed Funds Futures)
PART FOUR
BUILDING BLOCKS: EURODOLLAR OPTIONS
Chapter 18
The Eurodollar Option Contract
Exhibit 18.1 Grid of Available Options (June 17, 2002, Close of Trading)
Exhibit 18.2 Eurodollar Option Contract Specifications
Exhibit 18.3 Number of Standard, Serial, Mid-curve, and Bundle Option Contracts
Exhibit 18.4 Option Type Symbols
Exhibit 18.5 Contract Month Symbols
Exhibit 18.6 October ′02 1-Year Mid-curve Option Prices
Chapter 19
Price, Volatility, and Risk Parameter Conventions
Exhibit 19.2 Option Pricing Model (Assumed Volatility → Theoretical Price)
Exhibit 19.3 Distribution of Rate Changes
Exhibit 19.4 Option Pricing Model (Market Price → Implied Volatility)
Exhibit 19.5 Summary of Risk Parameters
Application of Risk Parameters (For Small Changes in Market Conditions)
Chapter 20
Caps, Floors, and Eurodollar Options
Exhibit 20.1 Cap and Eurodollar Put; Floor and Eurodollar Call
Exhibit 20.2 Rate Setting on a 2-Year Cap
Exhibit 20.3 An Interest Rate Cap Is Like a Eurodollar Put (Put Strike Price = 100 — Cap Rate)
Exhibit 20.4 Comparing Eurodollar Puts to an Interest Rate Cap (June 17, 2002)
Chapter 21
Structure and Patterns of Eurodollar Rate Volatility
Exhibit 21.1 Summary: Historical, Implied, Realized, and Break-Even Volatilities
Exhibit 21.2 Implied versus Historical Eurodollar Volatility (Lead Contract, 1984 through 2002)
Exhibit 21.3 Break-Even Volatility
Exhibit 21.4 Normalized Historical Eurodollar Basis Point Volatility (1994 through 2002)
Normalized Historical Eurodollar Relative Rate Volatility (1994 through 2002)
Exhibit 21.5 Basis Point Implied Volatilities for At-the-Money Call Options (June 17, 2002)
PART FIVE
EURODOLLAR OPTION APPLICATIONS
Chapter 23
Trading with Serial and Mid-curve Eurodollar Options
Exhibit 23.1 Quarterly, Serial, and Mid-curve Eurodollar Options
Exhibit 23.2 Vega, Gamma, and Theta (At-the-Money Call)
Exhibit 23.6 P/L for a Delta-Neutral Time Decay Spread
Exhibit 23.7 90-Day Historical Eurodollar Volatility (A Cross-sectional View)
Exhibit 23.8 Term Structure of Implied Eurodollar Volatility
Exhibit 23.9 Timeline of FOMC Meetings
Exhibit 23.13 Yields of U.S. 5-Year Notes and 5th Eurodollar since June ′94
Exhibit 23.14 Yield Spread between 5-Year Notes and 5th Eurodollar since June ′94 (In Basis Points)
Chapter 25
What Happens to Eurodollar Volatility when Rates Fall?
Exhibit 25.2 Eurodollar Volatility Cones (2-Year History as of Close of Business October 4, 2001)
Exhibit 25.3 Eurodollar Rate Levels and Basis Point Volatilities (1983 to October 4, 2001)
Exhibit 25.4 Eurodollar Rate Levels and Basis Point Volatilities (December 6, 1990, to October 4, 2001)
Exhibit 25.5 Relative and Basis Point Rate Volatilities (January through October 2001)
Chapter 26
Eurodollar Volatility: An Update
Exhibit 26.1 Volatility Cones and Return Distributions (2-Year History as of September 10, 2002)
Chapter 27
Hedging Convexity Bias
Change in Net DV01 (With Respect to Changes in Eurodollar Futures Rates)
Exhibit 27.2 Convexity Bias Value and Vega
Exhibit 27.3 Options on Eurodollar Futures (August 1, 2001)
Exhibit 27.4 Option and Swap Characteristics (August 1, 2001)
Exhibit 27.6 Second Red Eurodollar Implied Volatility As Proxy for Term Swaption Implied Volatility
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