When you find a pattern in data, I encourage you to ask and report on the following
four questions:
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If I found a pattern I was expecting, what theory backs this pattern up? (In the case
of theory-based analysis you would have established this; in data mining, you should
seek a theory that explains your finding). Reference the theories that back your findings
up!
-
-
What practical implications does my pattern hold? For example, in business studies
you might ask:
-
What business strategies or tactics might my findings stimulate?
-
Can I extrapolate my model to other important implications, such as profitability?
-
If I were advising future researchers following in my footsteps, what improvements
or extensions on this research would I advise?
Practical implications are often quite difficult for novice researchers to think about,
but this is so important!
For instance, imagine you are a pharmaceutical company testing a drug, say a cholesterol
drug. Your studies will look at the symptoms and physiology of high cholesterol sufferers
and test the drug on these focus variables. If you find patterns, you will model these
into summary coefficients that express in a few numbers how strongly the drug affects
patients (e.g. decreases bad cholesterol counts in blood by x%, lowers the odds of
some secondary effect by so-much, etc.).
Now, use these coefficients to consider practical implications. What do these improvements
really mean in the lives of patients? If this is the improvement, will doctors prescribe
it (may require surveys of doctors)? How much can we sell it for? Taking into account
the cost to produce the drug, would this be profitable? Take the analysis as far as
you can or as far as is useful. Just stopping at the “this is the statistical effect
of the drug” is less useful than all these extrapolations.
Don’t assume that you can interpret statistics only when you find the pattern you
thought you were going to find. As discussed, you should come up with alternative
explanations when you don’t find your pattern, as well as practical implications.